How many downloads does an app get? Estimates from public signals, in practice: the long version
A download estimate is only as good as the two things it rests on. The share of people who rate an app varies with the app: a game with a review prompt gets one rating per fifty installs, a utility nobody opens twice gets one per thousand. That is why the range is wide and why we do not narrow it by hand.
The rank curve is steadier. Garg and Telang measured it on paid apps and found the #1 app takes about 150 times the downloads of #200; free charts behave the same way with a different anchor. The anchor moves with the year, which is exactly what connected sales reports correct.
Google Play is more forthcoming: the store prints an install bucket on every listing, which we show beside the estimate as a sanity check, and Play users rate more often. Apple prints nothing, so on the App Store the chart rank matters more.
Written by Primo, who builds aso.best. We ship iOS apps ourselves; every method on this page is one we use on our own listings, and the hidden-field inference is tested against our own keyword field. Not affiliated with Apple.